So here's what we have so far:
C - Posada/Molina
1B - Teixeira/Swisher
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
DH - Matsui
RF - Nady
LF - Damon
CF - Gardner/Cabrera
SP - Sabathia
SP - Wang
SP - Burnett
SP - Chamberlain
SP - Pettitte? Hughes? Kennedy? Aceves? FA?
RP - Rivera
RP - Bruney
RP - Marte
RP - Coke/Ramirez/Veras/Robertson/Melancon/Giese/Aceves
The only needs right now are a 5th starter and a utility infielder since Betemit was traded to the White Sox.
As of now, I still bank on Pettitte taking the $10M offer from the Yankees. Techincally he would slot in as the #4 starter and would likely project to be better than league average as your #4.
Here's why I like the Sabathia signing. In effect - the Yankees gave him a three year deal. To me the opt out is the best part of the deal. Pitchers are fragile investments in baseball's free market (your high risk/reward small caps if you will). Historically, long term contracts haven't worked out too well for starting pitchers (see Hampton, Neagle, Brown, Dreifort etc). Not to say it can't happen, but odds are against it.
Sabathia wants to pitch on the west coast eventually - that much was made clear this offseason. If he has three great years for the Yanks, the Bombers would have gotten their money's worth and he can walk. If he has a great THIRD year - he's opting out. The only way the Yanks are stuck with him is if Sabathia breaks down and becomes a shell of himself or sustains a serious injury. The possibility is there, but it's a risk you take with all pitchers.
Basically - you're getting Sabathia in his prime and if he opts out, let him walk. Cut bait before he hits his decline years. There's no use giving him another 7-year deal at 32 or 33. That's likely what he'll demand if he opts out. Get his best years and then cut bait. Hopefully by then a Betances or Brackman is ready to step into the rotation.
I wasn't big on the Burnett signing. Five years and 82.5M was way too much. I can't see him staying healthy. If healthy in October, he does give you the potential for a great shutdown starter, but he needs to turn me into a believer.
Tex works for me. I thought it was overkill, but he's the safest bet. You're getting him for most of what is left of his prime and then probably a few decline years. But his production should still be OK toward the end of the deal.
Now here's the tricky part - next year, the Yanks WILL have some glaring holes especially in the outfield. Here's a quick skeleton of the 2010 roster. Remember Matsui, Damon, and Nady all come off the books.
C - Posada
1B - Teixera
2B - Cano
SS - Jeter
3B - Rodriguez
DH - ?
RF - Swisher
LF - ?
CF - Jackson
How do you deal with an aging and declining C and SS, and possibly an uproven rookie CF?
The Yanks have a few dillemnas. First, what if Posada can't catch. He slides into your DH spot and now you need a stopgap catcher. Romine and Montero won't be ready (Montero probably will end up as a DH type anyway). Check out Cot's Contracts there are a few decent catchers who could be available. Cervelli isn't a starting big league catcher, he's all glove no stick - more of a backup.
Also, Austin Jackson's 2009 minor league season will be very intriguing to watch. The Yanks look to be keeping a seat warm for him come 2010. But again, will he be ready? He's a toolsy player with tremendous athleticism, but how quickly will that translate into MLB readiness. Remember it took Bernie a while. So worst case scenario, you might need a CF too.
Now there are a few options out there. Nady will be 31 and I'm not sure he's the long term answer. I wouldn't mind letting Swisher play everyday in RF if he has a productive '09 season. Jury's out, but I bank on a bounce back. He had a decent line drive rate last year and was victimized by some bad luck. Plus, he's a high OBP guy unlike Nady.
I can't say with certainty but depending on how Matt Holliday does in the AL, I can see the Yanks pushing for him. Buyer beware though, they don't want to get stuck with too many long term contracts like the post-Dyansty team.
The player I really like is Rick Ankiel. He'd be perfect in center. He's got a great swing for Yankee Stadium. He reminds me of Jim Edmonds a little. Great defensive outfielder with the best arm in the game, I'm surprised the Yanks didn't try to pry him away this offseason. You could play Ankiel in CF, Jackson in LF, and Swisher in RF.
Another option - and hold the gasp - what I'm about to say is blasphemy. It's far fetched and it's a long shot. But it would require moving Jeter to the outfield. Either LF or CF. Yes, it would create a hole at SS and no I don't move A-Rod. He's fine at 3B. Plus, imagine the tabloids if Jeter were moved out of SS for A-Rod!? Will never happen. The Yanks would have to make a trade for a SS at that time. The odds of that are unlikely. The asking price for Hanley will be astronomical and I doubt Carmen Angellini (sp?) will be ready or even MLB capable. But it's realistic to assume that Jeter may not be able to even play an adequate SS by then. Eventually the Yankees WILL have to move him and remember his contract expires after 2010.
Point being - offensively there will be some juggling to do come next offseason. It will be interesting how the pieces fit. I hear a lot of chatter about trading for Carl Crawford. I can't see it. The Rays are a contender now, if they traded Crawford - there's NO WAY it would be to a team in its own division.
Now I didn't factor in Gardner or Melky, there's a chance they could find themselves in the outfield mix, but they'd have to overachieve quite a bit in 2009.
The pitching would stack up pretty well though in 2010.
1. Sabathia
2. Chamberlain
3. Wang
4. Burnett
5. Hughes
Kennedy would be first man up when Burnett gets elbow tendinitis the first week of June.
Thought I'd share my thoughts here. Welcome to the blog.
I'll have some more entries coming up and try to keep it entertaining and informative.
